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forecasting for growth

Market models and forecasting

Market models, forecasts and customer simulations help businesses identify places to invest, optimum price points, and to make forecasts about decisions and investments in markets and marketing - for example our  interactive pricing explorer.

Our forecasts and models are built using market research, market intelligence, statistical analysis and internal and external perspectives on the state of the market, for business planning and investment. Models and forecasts help crystallize thinking, create discussions and help set the direction for the business.

Market modelling is the process of building a picture of a market for forecasting and planning purposes. Models draw upon a combination of research, intelligence and internal knowledge, starting with a qualitative description of market structure and linkages, customer segments, buying cycles, core purchase drivers and identification of purchase preferences.

When much analysis is static or fixed charts, we like to bring the data insights alive and make the analysis interactive and exploratory. For instance, our interactive pricing explorer shows how interactive models can be used to explore and understand the impact of market demand on decisions like pricing optimisation.

Using quantitative data from research or market intelligence, demand forecasts, predictors for market share, and statistical models of purchase behaviour can be developed in order to optimise product and marketing resources and to choose between different business options.

For instance, conjoint analysis models are used to determine how product and service features affect customer demand, and so how to plan for product ranges and investment decisions.

Models are a way of exploring a market to identify patterns of behaviour, and link them to business outcomes. The level of sophistication can vary from simple statistical regressions, demand estimate, or extend into behavioural models driven with machine learning combined with marketing experimentation such as A/B testing.

While models are statistical and numerical at their heart, the actual process of modelling markets is best when the models themselves are interactive - providing tools for 'What if...?' type analysis to explore strategic and tactical options turning latent knowledge of the organisation into active perspectives about market places, customers and directions for the business.

We build fully interactive models, designed to be easy to use by product managers and senior executives. These can simply look at demand, or extend to include internal fixed and variable costs to provide insight into growth and thresholds for business planning.

For help and advice on market models and forecasting contact info@dobney.com

Market forecasting resources

Discussion articles on creating models of markets, forecasting, running experiments and experimental marketing, and using these to develop plans and forecasts to guide investment and planning.


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